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Monitoring housing credit trends with quantitative data: housing credit risk deteriorating for US, stabilizing in UK

US building permits hit a 13-year high this week, supported by a low mortgage rates. Despite this apparently positive outlook for the sector, Consensus credit risk data indicates that credit quality for US Household Goods & Home Construction companies has been steadily falling for some time.

In the UK, post-election optimism and increased certainty around Brexit has led to a ‘new year bounce’ in the number of new buyers and sellers entering the market. UK Household Goods & Home Construction firms have seen greater stability in their credit quality fortunes over recent months compared to their US counterparts.

  • Credit quality for US-based firms continues to deteriorate, with overall probability of default increasing 12% on a year-over-year basis.
  • UK-based firms have seen relative credit stability in recent months.

US Household Goods and Home Construction Firms

The overall credit picture for US firms continues to worsen. The group saw credit quality deterioration of 2.5% on a month-over-month basis and 12% on a year-over-year basis.

UK Household Goods and Home Construction Firms

In contrast to the US, the credit situation for UK firms has stabilized. Credit quality deteriorated by 1.7% on a month-over-month basis but has been essentially flat on a year-over-year basis, dropping by only 0.2%.

About Credit Benchmark Consensus Aggregates

Aggregate Analytics are macro-level risk indicators that assess and compare credit trends and distributions across 105 countries, 300 industries and 75 sectors. Hundreds of trend-tracking, forward-looking Aggregates are available, reflecting Credit Benchmark’s expanding universe of 800,000+ contributed credit risk observations from the world’s leading financial institutions. For more information, see https://open.factset.com/products/aggregate-analytics/en-us.